Denver metro · Jul 16 to Jun 26 · fifty years of context
Denver homes cost 25% more than in 2016. They are also 29% smaller.
Median price is the number every market report leads with, and on its own it is close to useless. Put it next to median square footage and a different market appears.
Boxes are drawn to scale against each other. Same market, ten years apart.
The number that actually went up
Realtor.com via FRED · publicPrice per square foot, Denver metro. Move across the chart to read any month. This is the line that tells the truth about affordability, and it is almost never the line that gets published.
Buyers did not agree to pay 25% more for the same house. They agreed to buy less house.
The turn has a date
Realtor.com via FRED · publicPrice is a lagging, noisy signal. The ratio of listings that cut their price to listings that raised it is neither. Each bar is the July reading for that year.
In July 2021 there were 7.8 price cuts for every price increase, the tightest seller market in the series. By July 2025 it was 43.5 to 1. The ability to raise a price mid-listing simply left the market.
But it is not a crash, and fifty years says so
FHFA house price index · federal, back to 1976Denver metro index, 1976 to 2026. Currently 0.1% off the all time high set in 2025-10.
Every meaningful decline since 1976
Peak to trough, measured on the index. Bars scaled against 10%. The worst housing stretch in fifty years of Denver data took 9.0% off, and it recovered.
And rates are not historically high
Freddie Mac via FRED · back to 197130 year fixed, 1971 to 2026. Today 6.66%. Average across the entire series 7.68%. The 2.65% low of 2021 was the anomaly, not the baseline that got taken away.
What buyers actually see: a market that stopped building
Census permits + BLS · federalPermits peaked at 29,905 in 2021. 2025 came in at 15,767, roughly 53% of that. Over the same window Denver unemployment sits at 3.9% against a 35 year average of 4.7%. Demand did not disappear. Supply did.
What to do with this
If you are buying
- Compare price per square foot, not price. Two listings at $589,000 can be a $114,400 difference in what you actually get.
- Stop waiting for a rate that is below the fifty year average. You are already there.
- The cut to raise ratio at 44 to 1 says asking prices are soft. Negotiate on the list price, not just on repairs.
If you are selling
- Your comps are per square foot. A larger home priced off a median headline will sit.
- 48 days is the median, which means half of homes take longer. Plan the carry, not the fantasy.
- Almost nobody raises a price anymore. Pricing high to leave room is a strategy the data stopped supporting years ago.
Common questions
Are Denver home prices going to crash?
Nothing in fifty years of data looks like that yet. The FHFA index for Denver metro is 0.1% off its all time high set in 2025, and the deepest drawdown since 1976 was 9.0% bottoming in 2011. Denver has never had a housing crash on the scale people usually mean by the word.
Why does it feel more expensive than the price numbers say?
Because the median home got smaller. Median listing price is up 25.5% since Jul 16, but median square footage fell 28.7%, from 2,883 to 2,055. On a price per square foot basis the increase is 69.2%. You are not paying a quarter more for the same house.
Should I wait for interest rates to drop?
The 30 year fixed is 6.66%. Its average across the whole series back to 1971 is 7.68%. Today's rate is below the long run average, not above it. The 2 to 3% era was the anomaly, not the baseline.
Is it a buyer's market in Denver right now?
By negotiating leverage, yes, and you can date the turn. In July 2021 there were 7.8 price reductions for every price increase. In July 2025 there were 43.5. Sellers have lost the ability to raise a price mid-listing.
Why is inventory still tight if demand slowed?
Because Denver stopped building. Permits peaked at 29,905 in 2021 and 2025 came in at 15,767, about 53% of that. Meanwhile unemployment is 3.9% against a 35 year average of 4.7%. The constraint is supply, not jobs.
Sources
Federal, public, no restriction. FHFA House Price Index, Denver metro, quarterly from 1976. Freddie Mac 30 year fixed rate from 1971. Census Building Permits Survey, Denver metro, from 1988. Bureau of Labor Statistics unemployment, Denver metro. Realtor.com residential listing metrics, Denver metro, monthly from 2016, distributed through FRED at the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis.
MLS-derived figures appearing elsewhere on this site carry the following notices, which are required and are reproduced verbatim.
Based on information from REcolorado®, Inc. for the period Jul 16 through Jun 26.
Not all properties were listed and/or closed by Company.
This representation is based in whole or in part on content supplied by REcolorado®, Inc. REcolorado®, Inc. does not guarantee nor is it in any way responsible for its accuracy. Content maintained by REcolorado®, Inc. may not reflect all real estate activity in the market.
Analysis and commentary by Robert An, Broker Associate, Colorado License #100084328, Homesy5280 | Compass, 4643 S Ulster St, Suite 500, Denver, CO 80237. Published August 01, 2026. Figures are current as of the most recent release of each series and are not updated automatically.
Denver Metro Housing Market, by the Numbers
Entire REcolorado MLS. Data period January 2023 through July 2026. Published August 01, 2026.
How to read these numbers. Each point is a rolling 12 months figure, not a single-month snapshot. Rolling figures smooth out seasonal noise, so turning points show up later here than in a month-over-month chart.
What the numbers say
- Median Closed Price is essentially flat between January 2023 and July 2026, moving 0.9%.
- Median Days in MLS is up 342.9% from January 2023 to July 2026, 7 to 31.
- Showings Per Listing is down 48.4% from January 2023 to July 2026, 9.1 to 4.7.
- Months Supply of Homes for Sale is up 153.3% from January 2023 to July 2026, 1.5 to 3.8.
- Median Pct of Closed $ to List $ is down 0.7 percentage points from January 2023 to July 2026, 100.0% to 99.3%.
- New Listings is up 4.5% from January 2023 to July 2026, 94,964 to 99,284.
Full monthly series
| Period | Median Closed Price | Median Days in MLS | Showings Per Listing | Months Supply of Homes for Sale | Median Pct of Closed $ to List $ | New Listings |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| January 2023 | $560,000 | 7 | 9.1 | 1.5 | 100.0% | 94,964 |
| February 2023 | $560,000 | 8 | 8 | 1.6 | 100.0% | 93,984 |
| March 2023 | $556,000 | 9 | 7.2 | 1.7 | 100.0% | 92,770 |
| April 2023 | $551,000 | 11 | 6.8 | 1.7 | 100.0% | 90,356 |
| May 2023 | $550,000 | 13 | 6.7 | 1.8 | 100.0% | 88,409 |
| June 2023 | $550,000 | 15 | 6.7 | 1.9 | 100.0% | 85,634 |
| July 2023 | $550,000 | 16 | 6.8 | 1.9 | 100.0% | 83,592 |
| August 2023 | $550,000 | 16 | 6.7 | 2 | 100.0% | 83,163 |
| September 2023 | $550,000 | 16 | 6.7 | 2 | 100.0% | 82,339 |
| October 2023 | $550,000 | 16 | 6.7 | 2.1 | 100.0% | 82,345 |
| November 2023 | $550,000 | 16 | 6.6 | 2.1 | 100.0% | 82,442 |
| December 2023 | $550,000 | 16 | 6.6 | 2.1 | 100.0% | 82,476 |
| January 2024 | $550,000 | 16 | 6.5 | 2.2 | 100.0% | 83,347 |
| February 2024 | $550,000 | 16 | 6.4 | 2.2 | 100.0% | 84,674 |
| March 2024 | $555,000 | 17 | 6.3 | 2.3 | 100.0% | 84,550 |
| April 2024 | $557,000 | 17 | 6.1 | 2.4 | 100.0% | 86,244 |
| May 2024 | $560,000 | 17 | 6 | 2.5 | 100.0% | 88,648 |
| June 2024 | $560,000 | 18 | 5.8 | 2.6 | 100.0% | 89,044 |
| July 2024 | $560,000 | 19 | 5.7 | 2.7 | 100.0% | 89,715 |
| August 2024 | $560,000 | 20 | 5.6 | 2.8 | 100.0% | 90,229 |
| September 2024 | $560,000 | 21 | 5.6 | 2.9 | 100.0% | 91,053 |
| October 2024 | $560,000 | 21 | 5.5 | 2.9 | 100.0% | 92,413 |
| November 2024 | $563,000 | 22 | 5.5 | 3 | 100.0% | 92,537 |
| December 2024 | $565,000 | 23 | 5.4 | 3 | 100.0% | 92,968 |
| January 2025 | $565,000 | 23 | 5.3 | 3.1 | 100.0% | 94,558 |
| February 2025 | $567,000 | 23 | 5.2 | 3.2 | 100.0% | 95,452 |
| March 2025 | $567,000 | 24 | 5.1 | 3.3 | 100.0% | 97,685 |
| April 2025 | $567,000 | 25 | 5 | 3.4 | 100.0% | 99,585 |
| May 2025 | $566,525 | 25 | 4.9 | 3.5 | 100.0% | 100,492 |
| June 2025 | $567,000 | 26 | 4.8 | 3.5 | 100.0% | 101,026 |
| July 2025 | $566,000 | 27 | 4.8 | 3.6 | 99.8% | 101,616 |
| August 2025 | $567,000 | 28 | 4.7 | 3.7 | 99.7% | 101,057 |
| September 2025 | $568,000 | 29 | 4.7 | 3.7 | 99.6% | 101,214 |
| October 2025 | $568,000 | 29 | 4.7 | 3.8 | 99.5% | 101,100 |
| November 2025 | $566,990 | 30 | 4.7 | 3.8 | 99.5% | 101,035 |
| December 2025 | $565,000 | 30 | 4.6 | 3.8 | 99.4% | 100,924 |
| January 2026 | $565,000 | 30 | 4.6 | 3.8 | 99.4% | 101,156 |
| February 2026 | $565,000 | 30 | 4.7 | 3.8 | 99.4% | 101,620 |
| March 2026 | $565,000 | 30 | 4.6 | 3.9 | 99.4% | 101,676 |
| April 2026 | $564,900 | 31 | 4.7 | 3.9 | 99.3% | 101,278 |
| May 2026 | $565,000 | 31 | 4.7 | 3.9 | 99.3% | 99,387 |
| June 2026 | $565,000 | 31 | 4.7 | 3.8 | 99.3% | 99,259 |
| July 2026 | $565,000 | 31 | 4.7 | 3.8 | 99.3% | 99,284 |
Source and required notices
Based on information from REcolorado®, Inc. for the period January 2023 through July 2026.
Not all properties were listed and/or closed by Company.
This representation is based in whole or in part on content supplied by REcolorado®, Inc. REcolorado®, Inc. does not guarantee nor is it in any way responsible for its accuracy. Content maintained by REcolorado®, Inc. may not reflect all real estate activity in the market.
Prepared by Robert An, Broker Associate, Colorado License #100084328, Homesy5280 | Compass, 4643 S Ulster St, Suite 500, Denver, CO 80237.
What do these numbers mean for your address?
Market-wide figures describe the market, not your home. A short conversation turns them into a number for your address, using the closed sales nearest to it.
Robert An, Broker Associate, Compass
303-529-1213 · robert@homesy5280.com